Webinar Details
Date: 2024-10-30
Time: 11 a.m. EDT | 4 p.m. CET
At the core of any simulation model is a set of probabilities. Are they the right probabilities? Are they actually representative of the uncertainties you are facing? And how do you know? In this talk, Tim Nieman will discuss some of the pitfalls in assessing probabilities, especially the ever-present cognitive biases, and how to minimize (but not eliminate!) these issues. The webinar will include some fun polls to test and potentially illuminate your own biases.
About the Presenter
Tim is the founder of Decision Applications, Inc., a Napa Valley based decision analysis consulting firm. His research and consulting interests have spanned the application of decision practices to a wide variety of problems including biotech, energy, environmental, and resource management decisions. He started his career as a geophysicist in the oil industry and has since held various positions in consulting, software and biotech firms. He is also the primary instructor of decision analysis courses for PetroSkills, provider of oil industry training. He has a B.S. in geology and M.S. in geophysics from Michigan State University, and an MBA from Rice University, and is a member (and former Board member) of the Society of Decision Professionals and the Decision Analysis Society.
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Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
